Home sales took a slight tick up in December, reversing the year-long trend. It is too early to know if this is the beginning of a better sales market or an abnormal month. Many of these sales were initiated following Election Day and closed amidst December’s snow and icy conditions. Two months of positive statistics will give us a far better picture of the direction of the market.
We will have to wait to see if the improvement can muscle its way through the continuing downturn in the economy. If it does, we may be putting the worse of Gig Harbor’s housing market behind us.
Two areas that I have mentioned throughout this year whose sales numbers have been stable finished the year still steady. The area surrounding the city of Gig Harbor has just two less sales than 2007 and Wauna/Minter is exactly the same as last year.
While the credit crunch may be a problem for many businesses and individuals seeking loans other than home loans, there is still plenty of money for employed homebuyers with very good credit and down payment. 30-year fixed rates loans are very available for 4.75% currently.
December closed sales show modest improvement but is still down 33.2% for the year in Gig Harbor and Key Peninsula.
Single-Family & Condos Sales Compared to 2007
|
|
December |
Annual |
|
New Listings |
<8.3%> |
<12.7%> |
|
Pending Sales |
<0.0%> |
<26%> |
|
Closed Sales |
15.9% |
<33.2> |
|
Market Days |
33% |
25.3% |
Inventory is 8.3% less than last December and has been creeping down all year. The current closed sales and inventory indicate an absorption rate (the number of months it will take to sell current inventory at the December sales rate) of 16.8 months. This is better than last December and better than half the months in 2008. This is due, in part, to sellers withdrawing their homes from the market. But it also represents the first month the sales numbers are not worse than the year before. A six to seven month supply of homes is where the balance tips between a buyer and seller’s market.
Time to market homes has increased dramatically over the year—166 days average in Gig Harbor and 193 days for Key Peninsula, compared to December 2007.
The graph depicts the combined Gig Harbor and Key Peninsula median home price over the past several years for single family homes, compared to Pierce County. This sales price is currently at the March/April 2005 level.
Year-to-date median sales prices are down 10% for Gig Harbor from both 2007 and 2006 and down 5% for Key Peninsula from 2007 but up just a bit from 2006. I’ve included the median price for the first three quarters of the year as a comparison because it shows a 4-5% decline in the last quarter of 2008 alone. Median price is the midway point in number of sales. This chart represents single family home sales only.
Year-to-date Median Sales Prices
|
|
GH-3rd Qtr YTD |
GH-Year-end |
KP-3rd Qtr YTD |
KP-Year-end |
|
2008 |
$424,000 |
$407,000 |
$242,500 |
$233,500 |
|
2007 |
$457,000 |
$450,000 |
$243,500 |
$242,000 |
One very large discrepancy is the difference in list prices and sales prices—$160,000, compared to $130,000 for 2007. This is a mainly a reflection of the price range that is selling compared to the listed inventory and, at least for Gig Harbor, the larger spread between listing and selling prices of many of the closed sales.
I’ll have more in the following weeks, including waterfront sales, new construction and the condominium market.
Carole Holmaas is an Associate Broker at Windermere Real Estate, licensed since 1967. She may be reached at Carole@ISellGigHarbor.com or 253.549.6611