There is a staggering disparity between local closed sales prices and current inventory list prices. In Gig Harbor the median sales price is 38% less than the median list price. Median price is the point where half the homes sell above and half below this price. This equates to a $234,000 spread. In Key Peninsula the numbers, as one would expect, are not as shocking. Closed prices are running 37% less than list prices for a $109,000 difference. Gig Harbor’s median sales price is $385,000 and Key Peninsula is $191,000 but median list prices are $619,000 and $300,000 respectively. The lower median sales price is just reflective of the price range that is selling in today’s market.
New sales, commonly referred to as “pending sales” are down also. Northwest Multiple Listing Service, the source of these statistics, reports only the list price for pending sales and it is likely the closed price will be something less. In Gig Harbor the median pending price is just $350,000—a $269,000 spread or 44% less than list price. As the pendings translate to closed sales in 30-45 days it appears the future median sales price will be even less than September’s $385,000. In Key Peninsula pendings are running $62,000 or 28% less than list prices, forecasting lower October sales prices as well.
This just emphasizes the point that the higher end (currently above $600,000 for Gig Harbor and $250,000 for Key Peninsula where there exists over 36 months of supply) is stuck, as financing has become more difficult and buyers have lost investment value in the recent market bust.
Homes that did close in September sold in 90-105 days on average. But listed homes are pushing 135-150 days on the market without selling.
There are a couple of bright spots—both the area surrounding the city of Gig Harbor and the Wauna/Minter area are on a par with the number of sales from last year. And median sales prices in the area surrounding the city of Gig Harbor have actually jumped up for the first nine months of the year, compared to 2007—from $420,000 last year to $472,000.
In analyzing where sales prices are heading, one needs to look at two trends—1) year-to-date, compared to last year and 2) current month-to-month figures. This data for localized areas is presented in the two tables below.
Year-to-date Comparison
|
Area |
Median Sales Price Y-T-D Sept. ‘08 |
Median Sales Price Y-T-D Sept. ‘07 |
|
S. Key Peninsula |
$221,000 |
$220,000 |
|
N. Key Peninsula |
$250,000 |
$256,000 |
|
Wauna/Minter |
$256,000 |
$295,000 |
|
Fox Island |
$430,000 |
$447,000 |
|
Wollochet/Narrows |
$406,000 |
$415,000 |
|
Arletta/Horsehead Bay |
$430,000 |
$450,000 |
|
Rosedale/Kopachuck |
$510,000 |
$515,000 |
|
Gig Harbor City & surrounds |
$472,000 |
$420,000 |
|
North Gig Harbor |
$400,000 |
$528,000 |
Month-to-month Comparison
|
Area |
Median Sales Price Sept. ‘08 |
Median Sales Price Aug. ‘08 |
|
S. Key Peninsula |
$178,000 |
$288,000 |
|
N. Key Peninsula |
$211,000 |
$166,000 |
|
Wauna/Minter |
$205,000 |
$231,000 |
|
Fox Island |
$365,000 |
$385,000 |
|
Wollochet/Narrows |
$379,000 |
$534,000 |
|
Arletta/Horsehead Bay |
$490,000 |
$375,000 |
|
Rosedale/Kopachuck |
$425,000 |
$515,000 |
|
Gig Harbor City & surrounds |
$380,000 |
$448,000 |
|
North Gig Harbor |
$328,000 |
$325,000 |
Sales prices in Gig Harbor, as a whole, are down 4% September over August–a significant one month drop and down 8% for the year. This is an indication that sales prices have been accelerating their decline as the year has progressed.
Key Peninsula, in its entirety, is even more dramatic. Prices have been holding up very well until just recently. Now they are down 29% September over August, and just 1% for the year. The low 1% is because prices have been up for the entire year—just now taking a big hit.
Please don’t shoot the messenger of these real estate statistics. But if you email me, I will be happy to supply you with any of this in more detail. It is compiled from data supplied by Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
Carole Holmaas is an Associate Broker with Windermere Real Estate. She may be reached at 253.549.6611 or Carole@ISellGigHarbor.com.