Carole's Blog

Cumulative House Appreciation 2014-2018.  The Home Price Expectation Survey 2014 1st Quarter was released last week by Pulsenomics. Pulsenomics surveys over one hundred economists, real estate experts and investment & market strategists asking them to project home prices. This includes three graphs for the national scene, projecting the highest this year and slightly lower the following four years.

1. The pre-bubble trend
2. The 25% most optimistic experts (bulls)
3. All projections
4. The 25% most pessimistic experts (bears)

And then, some indications historically of where annual appreciation sits:

Gig Harbor waterfront 2013’s sales volume was up 33% year-over-year.  April through October posted nearly identical volume each month—14 or 15 homes closing each month.  And the number of sales every month was the highest for Gig Harbor waterfront it had been for at least a decade.

The strong activity for Gig Harbor waterfront was due to a nearly “perfect storm” of buying conditions…historically low interest rates the first half of the year, a fair amount of inventory available with pent-up seller demand, easier lending requirements, and the buyers’ realization the market had bottomed. However, the very high tier—over $1million– dropped off precipitously with no Gig Harbor waterfront contracts written after the end of August. This followed the nation-wide fall-off of all price ranges in 4^th quarter. This very high-end represented just 10% of all sales—the lowest percentage we’ve seen since 2004.

·         Gig Harbor waterfront sales prices reached their peak in 2007. Prices have dropped 45% since then—back to where they were in 2003-2004.

·         The current slim inventory of Gig Harbor waterfront—coupled with still relatively low interest rates and easier financing could mean improving prices for sellers in 2014. On the other hand, if pent-up sellers place a surge of homes in the marketplace, it could continue to hold down prices. I believe there is a minimum of 300 waterfront owners who are ready to move—if market conditions (prices) will permit.

·         Gig Harbor waterfront homes selling above $1m sold on average for 150% of their assessed value in 2013. Average waterfront was 170 feet.  Nearly all faced West or Northwest, 3 had docks, and 8 were low or no-bank…nothing unusual here.

·         Homes selling from $750,000-1,000,000 sold on average for 120% of their assessed value. Sites averaged 136 feet, slightly more than half faced north or east, most the rest south.

·         Gig Harbor waterfront distressed home sales were down—just 9% of the sales last year were short-sales and 4% were bank-owned. This is a great reduction from two years ago at 9% and 13% respectively. The most expensive bank-owned house sold for $875,000 on Fox Island.

           There may be a window of opportunity for Gig Harbor waterfront  sellers now in early spring to take advantage of low inventory and buyers before more sellers enter the marketplace.

Gig Harbor waterfront 2013’s sales volume was up 33% year-over-year.  April through October posted nearly identical volume each month—14 or 15 homes closing each month.  And the number of sales every month was the highest for Gig Harbor waterfront it had been for at least a decade.

Gig Harbor waterfront 2013’s strong activity was due to a nearly “perfect storm” of buying conditions…historically low interest rates the first half of the year, a fair amount of inventory available with pent-up seller demand, easier lending requirements, and the buyers’ realization the market had bottomed. However, the very high tier—over $1million– dropped off precipitously with no Gig Harbor waterfront contracts written after the end of August. This followed the nation-wide fall-off of all price ranges in 4^th quarter. This very high-end represented just 10% of all sales—the lowest percentage we’ve seen since 2004.

• Gig Harbor waterfront sales prices reached their peak in 2007. Prices have dropped 46% since then–now residing where they were in 2003-2004.
• The current slim inventory of Gig Harbor waterfront—coupled with still relatively low interest rates and easier financing could mean improving prices for sellers in 2014. On the other hand, if pent-up sellers place a surge of homes in the marketplace, it could continue to hold down prices. I believe there is a minimum of 250 waterfront owners who are ready to move—if market conditions (prices) will permit.
• Gig Harbor waterfront homes selling above $1m sold on average for 150% of their assessed value in 2013. Average waterfront was 170 feet.  Nearly all faced West or Northwest, 3 had docks, and 8 were low or no-bank…nothing unusual here.
• Homes selling from $750,000-1,000,000 were on average 120% of their assessed value. Sites here averaged 136 feet, slightly more than half faced north or east, most the rest south.
• Gig Harbor waterfront distressed home sales were down—just 9% of the sales last year were short-sales and 4% were bank-owned. This is a great reduction from two years ago at 9% and 13% respectively. The most expensive bank-owned house sold for $875,000 on Fox Island.

• There may be a window of opportunity for Gig Harbor waterfront  sellers now in early spring to take advantage of low inventory and buyers before more sellers enter the marketplace.