Carole's Blog

Brakes applied to Gig Harbor home price slide.

The slide of the last five and a half years for Gig Harbor home prices has slowed in the last couple months while dropping 10% for the year.  Sales for 2011 shows Gig Harbor home prices(including Fox Island) neither bank-owned or short sales in the 4^th quarter declined only 3% rather than the 17% drop experienced in third quarter.

• Inventory is currently down 20% from a year ago and 40% from 2008
• Median sales price in 4^th quarter stood at $352.000 for non-distressed properties and $225,000 for bank-owned or REO (real estate owned).  The REO figure reflects a 19% drop from 4th quarter 2010 Gig Harbor home prices
• REO sale prices dropped about 15% for the year and non-distressed were down 10%
• All Gig Harbor home prices are trending  back to 4^th quarter 2004 but when removing  distressed sales from the equation prices are similar to 1^st quarter 2005 prices
• Homes are staying on the market fewer days—from 7-8 months in early 2011 to 4 months currently
• A few more homes and condos sold in 2011 than 2010
• January Gig Harbor home prices are trending up as well—higher than 6 of the past 12 months

Local 2011 quarterly statistics for Gig Harbor home prices highlight the difference between heavily discounted  bank-owned houses and the “rest of the market”.  REO sales represented 28% of all home sales in the first quarter but only 18-19% the last half of the year. This is expected to increase again as the lenders begin to ratchet up foreclosures after last week’s settlement with the five largest lenders, pertaining to sloppy methodology including robo-signing of documents. REO sales are still expected to maintain a solid presence in the housing market the balance of this year. Nation-wide foreclosures decreased 34% last year over 2010…but are expected to increase 25% in 2012. 

Gig Harbor Median Prices by Quarter

Short sales are not separated out in the table above because they actually do not affect the overall median price much. They are spread throughout all prices and tend to settle closer to the non-distressed market price. In fact the fourth quarter saw short sales close higher than non-distressed sales and much higher than the year before. 2011 is the year lenders have become receptive to the process, along with the help of negotiators who specialize in short sales.

The monthly national data shows some stabilization or increases in select markets one month while the next month produces data showing nearly all metropolitan areas are still down. Bright spots in the Puget Sound are the hiring Boeing and its contractors are doing plus overall improvement in employment.

Carole Holmaas is a Managing Broker at Windermere Real Estate/Gig Harbor, licensed since 1967. She specializes in waterfront and view properties and may be reached at 253.549.6611 or Carole@ISellGigHarbor.com

Gig Harbor waterfront sales…what a difference!

What a difference 4 months has made for Gig Harbor waterfront sales. In June I reported waterfront prices appeared to have stabilized. I added the caveat “for now”.  Sales were up and closed prices were running higher than 2010 prices. The median price for the first 5 months of 2011 was $686,000.

Then was then. And now is now. Gig Harbor waterfront sales prices have fallen a full $90,000 in the past 4 months and $60,000 from 2010 to $596,000 year-to-date. I blogged in June I was very concerned that closed prices would drop in the future because the pipeline of pending sales was reflecting much lower list prices.  It has!

Median price is the point where half the sales closed for more than that price and half closed for less. It is the typical sales price quoted for national and regional statistics. In 2007 half of the sales exceeded $900,000 and half were less. The turn in the waterfront market run-up can be traced to September 2007.  The first quarter of this year was by far the strongest for Gig Harbor waterfront prices…sliding ever since.

Sales volume is up 10% over last year and sellers realistic in pricing for today’s current market are selling in fewer days than in the past.  We are currently on track to close as many,  and possibly more, Gig Harbor waterfront homes as we did in 2006 and 2007.

January-September Gig Harbor waterfront sales highlights

• Sales volume well ahead of 2008, 2009 and 2010—10% higher than 2010
• $596,000 closed median price, down 10% from 2010 ($60,000 drop)
• Closed median price down 33% from 2007 high of $900,000
• Inventory down about 8% from a year ago
• Pending median list price $549,000
• 25% of closed sales are distressed properties—equal bank-owned & short sales
• 25% of pending sales are also distressed properties

Only 5 Gig Harbor waterfront sales have tipped the scale at more than $1 million since January—4 in the first 5 months and 1 in the next 4 months.  And the inventory is high—44 homes are listed over $1 million…16 of those over $2 million. At that rate of sales there is more than a 6 year supply of homes on the market over $1 million. With these statistics sellers need to price aggressively. It is very clear in today’s market that Gig Harbor waterfront homes selling in the fewest number of days are those that are priced realistically—in many cases sellers are able to get the full list price. 13% of sellers this year received full list price in 3-28 days of listing.

But what a bonanza for Gig Harbor waterfront buyers right now. With interest rates never lower and financing more available for higher-end homes than in 2009 and 2010 this is a great opportunity for buyers who have been contemplating a waterfront purchase. Buyers who can…are buying…as reflected in September’s written contracts. Buyers entered into contracts for 7 Gig Harbor waterfront homes…a figure not seen for September since 2007

Carole Holmaas is a Broker at Windermere Real Estate, licensed since 1967. She specializes in waterfront and view properties and may be reached at 253.549.6611 or carole@ISellGigHarbor.com

How do Gig Harbor home sales compare?

Closed home sales figures for august rose nearly 10% over last year in Gig Harbor but that was substantially less than Pierce County which experienced a 35% increase. Key Peninsula’s figures were more in line with the county at nearly 47% increase.

King County experienced a 32.7% increase in sales over last year and Kitsap 32.2%.

The increase in sales volume, coupled with a decline in inventory since last August of 13% in Gig Harbor brought the supply of homes down to the second lowest number for the year–8.4 months. the 16% inventory decline in Key Peninsula brings its supply of homes to 9.7 months–some of the lowest it has seen this year also.  Absorption is figured on the number of homes currently listed selling at the last month’s sales rate.

The good news was short lived however as the median sales price fell once more–down 11% from a year ago–$415,000 to $369,000–in Gig Harbor and down 15% for the quarter over the same period in 2010.

Key Peninsula prices fell even more–29% from last August–$194,000 to $138,000 with a quarterly decline of 20%. All but two months in 2011 have been at 2003 prices.

In comparison, Pierce county’s sales price tumbled 15% from a year ago, while Kitsap and King counties experienced a smaller decline of less than 9%.

Carole Holmaas is a Broker at Windermere Real Estate/Gig Harbor, licensed since 1967. She may be reached at 253.549.6611 or carole@ISellGigHarbor.com.

Gig Harbor home prices great for buyers!

Gig Harbor home prices are great for today’s buyers but discouraging for sellers. Prices are the same as in late 2003.  Key Peninsula home prices are at equal to second quarter 2003.

The usual culprit dragging sales numbers down is the distressed market. When 29% of all sales in Gig Harbor and 56% of Key Peninsula sales are bank-owned or short sales it pulls the numbers down even though the same non distressed home will sell for more.

The graphs tell the story. In 2010 Gig Harbor home prices had a seven month run of improved prices over the year before, but prices plummeted in October, stayed down throughout the winter, bounced up in April and May but declined severely in June. Gig Harbor home prices are now at their lowest point in the last seven and one half years.

Gig Harbor home prices are down 10.5% for the second quarter from 2010 and down 23.4% from May. The10.5% decline speaks to how bad the market still in because the overall drop from the all-time high in 2006—five years ago–is 25%. Supply of homes, based on sales, has been holding in the 10 month range.

Key Peninsula didn’t fare any better. Responsible for a higher percentage of distressed sales, prices are down 16.4% for the second quarter from 2010 and 15% from May. Between 2006 and 2008 there was more price consistency in the market with some of the highs occurring in each of the three years. But June’s low is down 54% from the all-time high of January 2007.

All of the distressed home sales in Key Peninsula were bank-owned whereas the balance between bank-owned and short sales in Gig Harbor is more equal.

Closings in July will reflect the first month where a true comparison can be made between current and previous year sales. June 2010 was the last month to close on the loan for first-time buyer credit so last year’s sales were slightly higher in Gig Harbor but the same in Key Peninsula. I would expect the next few months will see sales easily surpassing 2010.

Second quarter news was consistently dismal—oil and food price increases, European defaults, weather, employment, and D.C.’s stalemate over the debt ceiling and deficit reduction. The economy couldn’t get any positive traction and lack of consumer confidence meant buyers were unwilling to buy unless they got a great deal. This is really a “buyer’s market.”

One glimmer of sunshine is that Seattle has seen some strong activity, some multiple offers in certain price ranges, and some price stabilization. As goes Seattle…so goes Gig Harbor, eventually.

Carole Holmaas is a Broker at Windermere Real Estate, licensed since 1967. She may be reached at 253.549.6611 or by Carole@ISellGigHarbor.com/

Gig Harbor waterfront home prices stabilize…for now. Sale prices for Gig Harbor waterfront homes at the end of May were on track to beat 2010 prices–$686,000. However, the median list price of pending contracts is only $500,000. Half of these are distressed properties. So it is very likely the median closed price will slide over the next few months.

There is some good news for sellers trying to sell their homes though. Gig Harbor brokers have already closed as many sales in the first five months as the first half of the last three years. The first quarter was particularly strong as interest rates were low and buyers sensed prices were bottoming and made good use of sellers’ willingness to negotiate heavily at the end of winter.

January-May Gig Harbor waterfront home highlights

• Sales volume well ahead of 2008, 2009 and 2010—as much as 50%
• $686,000 median closed price up $25,000 from 2010 prices
• Inventory down 30% from a year ago
• Inventory up 25% in last 75 days
• Pending sales median list price only $500,000

• 37% of closed sales are distressed properties
• 50% of pending sales are distressed properties—1 bank-owned & the rest stuck in the short sale approval process
• Bank-owned homes closed for 81% of the bank’s list price and were on the market an average of 135 days after the bank took over. This drops precipitously to 63% from seller’s original list price
• Short sale homes closed for 67% of original list price and were on the market an average of 415 days
• Non-distressed homes closed for 70% of original list price, only slightly better

Sellers, as they consider pricing, should note the list to sales price ratio for original owners of homes eventually foreclosed on—63%– as well as the 70% for non-distressed closings. There is a difference in being “on the market” and “in the market” and several well-priced homes have sold this year in a matter of days for 95% of list price.

Four Gig Harbor waterfront home sales have tipped the scale at $1 million plus since the first of the year. The homes–two homes on Fox Island and two in Rosedale- sold for 72% of original list price. 2010 produced 17 sales over this mark.  In perspective…there are 50 homes listed over $1 million, including 16 over $2 million. This is a 61% increase in this price range in the past 75 days. It is easy to see many of these homes will be on the market for some time.

To further understand this market segment…there is not one current pending sale above $1 million. At this moment very few buyers are stepping up to these very high-end properties. However, willing and able buyers are receiving some very high quality Gig Harbor waterfront homes…in some cases at or under county assessed values.

Gig Harbor home prices drop to 2004 levels for the first four months of this year. Prices have clearly not stablized. The 15.4% drop from the same time last year is typical of Pierce county as a whole.

The Gig Harbor peninsula and Fox Island make up the data for Gig Harbor home prices.

April showed improvement, posting the highest median sales figure since November. And the lower inventory is pulling down the supply of homes.

Distressed home sales–mostly bank-owned–represent roughly a third or more of all sales currently. This is applying downward pressure on Gig Harbor home prices. this figure is slightly higher than nationally reported data.

Zillow reported last week that house prices are falling at their fastest rate in over three years. Zillow predicts the market will not bottom nationally until 2012…something no Gig Harbor real estate professional will agrue with.

For buyers–it is great time to buy–mortgages are cheap and bank-owned deals are plentiful.

Carole Holmaas is a Broker at Windermere Real Estate, licensed since 1967.

Gig Harbor home prices have clearly not yet stabilized as April data shows prices down 15.4% for the last three-month period from a year ago…but up from March. This $348,000 figure is the highest since November and uses the median sales price (half the sales above and half below).

Overall, Gig Harbor home prices are down 5.7% in the last one year compared to the one year period prior.  The Gig Harbor peninsula and Fox Island are included in data for Gig Harbor home prices.

Sales volume is right in line with last April and year-to-date figures—and the best since 2007.

Inventory is down nearly 20% from a year ago with an 11 months supply of homes on the market. This drop of listings correlates closely with the rest of the Puget Sound. Buyers in select price ranges may want to monitor that closely as a few areas have become seller’s markets.  The $200-250,000 range has only a four month supply and a couple mid to high-end ranges are in a balanced market condition.

Seattle Realtors are reporting they believe the bottom has been reached in that area’s homes priced under $350,000 and with a slimmer supply of good listings some upward pressure is being applied to home prices there. Gig Harbor home prices typically follow suit.

But sales above $800,000 have retrenched deeply in the past couple months as the economy has stumbled with only  one closing in April—for $2.1m—a deal that started as early as January. 

Distressed home sales—mostly bank-owned– represented a slightly smaller part of April’s closings—36% compared to 42% in March.  It is easy to see the downward pressure on Gig Harbor home prices with only 6% of listed homes bank-owned but 31% of all sales bank-owned properties.

Currently the national figure is about 30% of sales. Gig Harbor’s figures have continued to creep up over the past year.  According to the Case-Shiller Index, the Seattle/Bellevue/Everett area has about a 12.9 month supply of distressed homes to purge.  This represents the “shadow inventory” of homes in varying stages of delinquency and foreclosure as well as listed homes.

Carole Holmaas is a Managing Broker at Windermere Real Estate specializing in waterfront and view properties. She has been licensed since 1967. She maybe reached at 253.549.6611 or Carole@ISellGigHarbor.com.

New Gig Harbor home sales reverse February trend

There are two bright spots in March Gig Harbor home sales but the overall trend reverses the gains made in February. Pendings sales—contracts negotiated but not yet closed—are up nearly 20% from a year ago while inventory is down nearly 23%. The table includes both Gig Harbor and Key Peninsula.

Gig Harbor home sales numbers along with Key Peninsula and their accompanying median prices were all up in February but that picture changed drastically in March.

Pending sales produce the “pipeline” for closed sales. If a high percentage of the pendings close in April and May that will produce more sales than we have experienced since 2007. It wouldn’t take much beat April 2010’s 59 sales with only 51 and 55 the two years prior. One cautionary note is pending numbers for short sale transactions are always a bit dubious. And February “pendings” were also high—23% over the year before. Gig Harbor’s “pendings” was contradicted Pierce County as a whole which was down for March.

 My personal feeling is buyers are reeling from the combination of higher gas prices, the disaster in Japan and the political upheaval in the Middle East. Because interest rates stopped their climb some buyers decided to sit on the sidelines. Additionally March figures for Gig Harbor home sales was pushed upward in 2010 as the federal buyer stimulus was winding down.

With unemployment figures slowing and consumer confidence gaining those buyers will come back into the market, especially as the inventory of available homes continues to decrease. This pool of homes is down 23% from a year ago—the reason appears to be sellers holding out for the market to rid itself of foreclosures. Currently there is a 10 month supply of homes in Key Peninsula and Gig Harbor.

Gig Harbor home sales have been following the national trend where one in three closed sales is a distressed sale. Lately we have been seeing more bank-owned properties than short sales. The bank-owned sales are killing the prices as the lenders constantly drop the listed price to find a buyer.

Carole Holmaas is a Broker at Windermere Real Estate, licensed since 1968. She specializes in waterfront and view properties. She may be reached at 253.549.6611 or at Carole@ISellGigHarbor.com, where you may follow her blog postings.

February brings recovery to Gig Harbor home sales

The short February month brought signs of recovery to Gig Harbor home sales as well as Key Peninsula. While the indicators showed improvement it is too early to tell if a trend is developing. The world economy and political turmoil, as well as unemployment and foreclosures still provide a rocky picture for all of this year.

Gig Harbor home sales numbers along with Key Peninsula and their accompanying median prices were all up, from January as well. This is a particularly good sign for Key Peninsula which has experienced a very stagnant market for over a year.

The last 12 months has seen a 12% drop in prices in Key Peninsula from the previous 12 months while Gig Harbor’s pricing is essentially flat.

The numerous foreclosures and economic instability is perpetuating another trend—price reductions. One in four sellers dropped their price last month—and this has been consistent the past couple years—while they try to find the sweet spot that will entice the buyer to offer.

 One positive trend we have been seeing for a year now—and one that historically produces upward pressure on prices—is fewer sellers in the marketplace. Unfortunately the reason appears to be sellers holding out, when they can, for the market to rid itself of foreclosures.  Inventory is down 21% currently. There is a nine month supply of homes in Key Peninsula and a 14 month inventory in Gig Harbor.

 Carole Holmaas is a Broker at Windermere Real Estate, licensed since 1968. She specializes in waterfront and view properties. She may be reached at 253.549.6611 or at Carole@ISellGigHarbor.com, where you may follow her blog postings.

Gig Harbor homes parallel national distressed market

Distressed sales for Gig Harbor homes totaled 23% of everything sold in January. And for Key Peninsula it hit 70% of all sales. This was a total of 15 properties–all but two were bank-owned.

Figures from the National Association of Realtors® show distressed homes rose nationally to 36% of sales of existing homes in December, up from 33% in November and 32% a year ago. Such homes are typically discounted by 10 to 15 percent, according to NAR research.

Local figures show an increase from 2009 in distressed properties for Gig Harbor homes as well. Gig Harbor is up 6% in the 4^th quarter of 2010 compared to a year before…that is 31% of all homes that closed in the three month period. Key Peninsula was up 17% during that same time to a high of 56% of all closings.

Recently reports indicated the Greater Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue area’s foreclosure rate jump 23 percent from a year ago, second only to Houston. Regional experts believe that as our economy and unemployment improves, our market will recover more quickly than Florida, California, Arizona, and Nevada, because they have been in a deep trough longer. Snohomish and Pierce counties are currently experiencing the highest rates. And Seattle Metro prices dropped 6% from a year ago in December, which backs up the discounting of house prices due to distressed home sales. I would anticipate the Boeing award for the Air Force fueling tankers will help pull up the local economy up more quickly.

Most foreclosures now are being caused by unemployment and economic displacement, rather than bad loans and overheated values. But many of the 5 year ARM loans taken out in the heat of the 2006 housing bubble are coming due this year. Another record year for foreclosures is forecast which no doubt will drag house values down even further, pushing other homeowners into negative equity territory. It could be another five years to completely purge the housing inventory. Assets are being kept in weak hands longer as this becomes a long tedious market correction.

Distressed properties currently make up 29% of all listings in Key Peninsula and 19% of all listings for Gig Harbor homes. Two-thirds of Key Peninsula distressed homes are already owned by the bank where just 44% of the distressed inventory for Gig Harbor homes has been taken back thus far. However there is a large “shadow inventory” of bank-owned properties not yet on the market. Lenders are obligated to not flood the market.

Largest inventories are currently found in North Key Peninsula at 39%, Fox Island with 34% and Wauna/Minter at 32%.

The largest impact by price range is under $300,000 where 72% of January’s closing was distressed, and where 38% of all homes on the market fit this price range. This makes it very difficult for sellers, not in a distressed situation, in these price ranges to compete for buyers. Realty Trac, nationally foreclosure reporting service just this week noted that foreclosed properties are sometimes selling for a 28% discount over non-banked owned.