Carole's Blog

New Gig Harbor home sales reverse February trend

There are two bright spots in March Gig Harbor home sales but the overall trend reverses the gains made in February. Pendings sales—contracts negotiated but not yet closed—are up nearly 20% from a year ago while inventory is down nearly 23%. The table includes both Gig Harbor and Key Peninsula.

Gig Harbor home sales numbers along with Key Peninsula and their accompanying median prices were all up in February but that picture changed drastically in March.

Pending sales produce the “pipeline” for closed sales. If a high percentage of the pendings close in April and May that will produce more sales than we have experienced since 2007. It wouldn’t take much beat April 2010’s 59 sales with only 51 and 55 the two years prior. One cautionary note is pending numbers for short sale transactions are always a bit dubious. And February “pendings” were also high—23% over the year before. Gig Harbor’s “pendings” was contradicted Pierce County as a whole which was down for March.

 My personal feeling is buyers are reeling from the combination of higher gas prices, the disaster in Japan and the political upheaval in the Middle East. Because interest rates stopped their climb some buyers decided to sit on the sidelines. Additionally March figures for Gig Harbor home sales was pushed upward in 2010 as the federal buyer stimulus was winding down.

With unemployment figures slowing and consumer confidence gaining those buyers will come back into the market, especially as the inventory of available homes continues to decrease. This pool of homes is down 23% from a year ago—the reason appears to be sellers holding out for the market to rid itself of foreclosures. Currently there is a 10 month supply of homes in Key Peninsula and Gig Harbor.

Gig Harbor home sales have been following the national trend where one in three closed sales is a distressed sale. Lately we have been seeing more bank-owned properties than short sales. The bank-owned sales are killing the prices as the lenders constantly drop the listed price to find a buyer.

Carole Holmaas is a Broker at Windermere Real Estate, licensed since 1968. She specializes in waterfront and view properties. She may be reached at 253.549.6611 or at Carole@ISellGigHarbor.com, where you may follow her blog postings.

February brings recovery to Gig Harbor home sales

The short February month brought signs of recovery to Gig Harbor home sales as well as Key Peninsula. While the indicators showed improvement it is too early to tell if a trend is developing. The world economy and political turmoil, as well as unemployment and foreclosures still provide a rocky picture for all of this year.

Gig Harbor home sales numbers along with Key Peninsula and their accompanying median prices were all up, from January as well. This is a particularly good sign for Key Peninsula which has experienced a very stagnant market for over a year.

The last 12 months has seen a 12% drop in prices in Key Peninsula from the previous 12 months while Gig Harbor’s pricing is essentially flat.

The numerous foreclosures and economic instability is perpetuating another trend—price reductions. One in four sellers dropped their price last month—and this has been consistent the past couple years—while they try to find the sweet spot that will entice the buyer to offer.

 One positive trend we have been seeing for a year now—and one that historically produces upward pressure on prices—is fewer sellers in the marketplace. Unfortunately the reason appears to be sellers holding out, when they can, for the market to rid itself of foreclosures.  Inventory is down 21% currently. There is a nine month supply of homes in Key Peninsula and a 14 month inventory in Gig Harbor.

 Carole Holmaas is a Broker at Windermere Real Estate, licensed since 1968. She specializes in waterfront and view properties. She may be reached at 253.549.6611 or at Carole@ISellGigHarbor.com, where you may follow her blog postings.

Gig Harbor home sales up 17% from year ago. January has not been flooded with buyers for either Gig Harbor or Key Peninsula—but the pace appears to have picked up at the end of the month. 

Gig Harbor posted a 40% gain in sales (31 sales) but Key Peninsula slipped by 15%(10 sales). Gig Harbor home sales were on a par with 2006. But Key Peninsula total is typical of the trend all last year with the area no longer producing its historic one-third of all sales.

Local homeowners and Realtors got part of what they were hoping for–more sales, but higher prices eluded them…for the month of January at least.  Newly generated (pendings)sales were on a slower pace than a year ago. It will take another two to three months to determine a more definite pattern for Gig Harbor home sales.

Median sales prices are reflective of prices last seen in 2004…in other words, nothing encouraging by way of price increases yet.  The median sales price actually dropped substantially from last January.

Half the months in 2010 showed improvement for Gig Harbor home sales over the year before for both sales numbers and median price. While this does not show a major uptick it does show some signs of stabilizing. Most homeowners are obviously hoping prices don’t slip any further.

Inventory is continuing to fall—7% fewer homes were listed in 2010 than 2009. Once we move into the Spring season we should see inventory absorption improve too. Six months supply is considered a balanced market.  Pockets of better sales can be found between $200,000 and 350,000.

So what has happened to prices in your neighborhood this past year? This map will show you the median price for Gig Harbor home sales and market days in your zip code.

The zip code 98332 experienced a 2.2% increase in median sales price over the year, while 98333 and 98335 dipped 15.7% and 3.3% respectively.

University of Puget Sound economic professors Bruce Mann and Douglas Goodman this fall forecast the first half of 2011 will be the better part of the year for Pierce County because of the returning troops to JBFLM. That impact will diminish as the year progresses. The professors said historically recessions are caused by weak local conditions but our region’s strong economy was what caused the local delay of the national events. So our downturn started later—the end of 2008—and ended later–the summer of 2010. Their predictions look like 2011 could be another sluggish year.

The professors also said at the December meeting that Pierce County could be affected with overseas devaluation. In fact the Port of Tacoma has gone through three years of sharp declines in traffic. Very little growth is expected for 2011 at the Port.

They also indicated that Gig Harbor home sales could improve faster than the rest of the county.

Carole Holmaas is a Broker at Windermere Real Estate, licensed since 1968. She may be reached at 253.549.6611. Her postings can be followed at http://blog.ISellGigHarbor.com.

Gig Harbor straddles areas poised for housing growth

Before I get to my headline…

Next week I will report on August figures for Gig Harbor home sales which appear to be an improvement over July’s anemic closings. We are set to close on target or better than 2009, with pending sales starting to flow as well. Sales include a couple more closings over 1m.

Sellers are in lock-step with nation-wide economic news though, as over 250 residences were reduced in price during the month. More next week…

Now for some good local news…

Often Gig Harbor home sales do not follow county or regional trends.  While July figures were down throughout the region and Gig Harbor, inventory did not build in Gig Harbor as in other areas.

 And for some even better local news…

Washington State–specifically Tacoma and Bremerton-Silverdale–are poised to have some of the strongest housing markets by 2014. Earlier this month Businessweek.com released a forecast of the U. S housing market, prepared by Moody’s Economy.com and the information firm Fiserv.

Bremerton-Silverdale housing prices are expected to increase 44.7% over the next four years or 9.7% annually. The area has experienced a 20% drop from the 2007 boom year. The area’s heavy military presence has kept unemployment at 7.2%, compared to 9.5% nationally, and only a fraction higher than last year. Median family income is $69,900.

The area attracts buyers looking to live close to Seattle at a lower cost in a great natural setting. The same thing can be said of Tacoma, which the study predicts will be Washington’s second strongest market with a 33.1% price gain. 15% of that is predicted to occur by 1^st quarter 2012. Tacoma’s median family income is a tad lower than Bremerton at $66,200.

Gig Harbor is blessed to be straddling these two metro areas, offering some of the best schools, great parks and recreation, panoramic views, proximity to Seattle and probably the most picturesque small waterfront city in the Northwest.

Housing supply and demand in Washington, Oregon, New Mexico and Utah are in balance, according to the research, and are most likely to be undersupplied in another two years.

Carole Holmaas is a Broker with Windermere Real Estate, licensed since 1968. She specialized is waterfront and view properties and may be reached at 253.549.6611 or at Carole@ISellGigHarbor.com