Carole's Blog

Gig Harbor home sales

Gig Harbor home sales annual review—strictly resale. This may surprise you but 2^nd quarter 2013 and 3rd quarter 2012 realized median sales prices near the 2006 peak of $425,000. This is “strictly resale” homes—not bank-owned nor short-sales.

Today’s graph of Gig Harbor home sales shows resale, new and bank-owned sales plus the resale trendline, by quarter, from $400,000 in 2005 to $370,000 today.  Resale is now off just 13% from its peak and only 7.5% from its trendline. Sale prices performed well in the first half 2013…but removed much of those gains in the second half…performing at 2005 prices.This is true of all Gig Harbor home sales.

More stats on the resale market

• Current $370,000 sales price is considered neutral, based on a 6-quarter trend
• Sold-to-listing price ratio  is up to 94% from 89% a year ago
• With 40-55% of 2006-07 sales new large homes, this pulled up the sales price overall above $450,000 —  just as bank-owned sales pulled it down below $325,000

I offer some observations…positive and negative for Gig Harbor home sales

• The recent Boeing contract and high tech industry will produce a more robust housing market than much of the rest of the nation
• Interest rates will likely  climb to 5.4% by year’s end and lending will be less supportive to a housing recovery
• Income growth will continue very slowly. This is the deepest and longest employment “recovery” we have experienced since the Depression
• Investors have pulled back from buying homes, creating part of the slowdown in sales since summer
• Inventory will stay low until sellers can retrieve more of their equity—higher sales prices. Nationally 13% of homeowners owe more than their home is worth. Washington is 11^th for foreclosure filings, bucking the national trend
• Puget Sound sales volume has dropped the last 3 months after all 2013’s earlier months topped the charts
• January 10’s tighter underwriting standards will keep more first-time buyers renting

Gig Harbor resale home prices down just 5.1% over peak. Stripping out new home and distressed home sales, Gig Harbor resale prices are actually down just 5.1% from the 2006 peak. Hopefully this week’s graph will provide some perspective for sellers as they contemplate marketing their home in 2014. The numbers show Gig Harbor resale prices down 21% from its boom but that figure includes distressed sales and new home prices that outpaced the rest of the market by $150,000-300,000 at the peak.  New homes were much larger than the product being built today in Gig Harbor North. All sales combined are up 6.3% over a year ago.

A caveat – Competition for any home sale depends on the options available to the buyer at that time. It is one thing to compete in a market with a 2-year supply of homes and 50% of it distressed compared to a 4-month supply of homes with only 10% distressed currently.

While first quarter 2013 was the low point for combined Gig Harbor sales prices, this entire year has been the highest (with an exception in early 2010) since first half 2008 for Gig Harbor resale prices itself.

Inventory is down 47% from first half 2008 high. Gig Harbor hasn’t experienced low inventory since 2004-05. This is why brokers routinely urge sellers to consider marketing early in the year – traditionally a low inventory period, producing faster sales and higher prices.

Gig Harbor resale prices

Gig Harbor home prices and sales pause in October

Pending sales volume during October was level with 2012 sales as well as September’s.  The higher tiers have seen fewer contracts and closed sales in the past two months.

The consensus is the federal shutdown during the first two weeks of October, the unknown of the Affordable Health Care law and below-normal inventory has shaken consumer confidence.

Consumer confidence “deteriorated considerably” in October as a result of the shutdown and debt ceiling squabbles, according to The Conference Board. A recent Gallup poll found some improvement in Americans’ economic confidence, but reported it is still well below mid-September, before the shutdown

MLS figures summarizing October’s activity show year-over-year drop in inventory (down 10% in Gig Harbor and 20% in Key Peninsula), nearly 20% increase in the volume of closed sales, and healthy increases in selling prices (up 9.4% in Gig Harbor and 5.9% in Key Peninsula).

Gig Harbor’s median price of $350,000 is 9.4% higher than a year ago – 12.9% lower than September – essentially the same as first half 2005 prices. First half November Gig Harbor home prices are also lower.

• As of Nov 17, $285,000 is the median Gig Harbor home price for closed sales
• Gig Harbor home prices are running at 1^st half 2005 prices
• Key Peninsula’s median price of $216,000 is 5.9% higher than last year & the same as September
• As of Nov 17, $183,000 is the median for closed sales this month
• Prices are running at 2^nd half 2005 prices
• Nationally house prices are expected to increase 4.3% in 2014 and settle around 3.4% after that
• October homes closed at 99% of then current list price. November is seeing a slight tick down from that and slightly longer market time
• Inventory is down 10% for Gig harbor and nearly 20% for Key Peninsula

The Year's Best Décor Trends…something to consider since more of us are staying in our homes and remodeling.

http://bit.ly/18v48dw

Importance of Curb Appeal %5BINFOGRAPHIC%5D

Real Estate Post Sandy Proves ‘Jersey Strong’

http://bit.ly/1cJOhdT

We are seeing this in the Gig Harbor home market now with a neutral supply of homes at a bit more than six months…a far cry from the 3.5 month supply of the second quarter.

The shortage of homes for sale earlier in the year created an imbalance of supply to demand which resulted in double digit year-over-year price increases nationally. According to a recent Wall Street Journal article, the inventory of homes for sale is now beginning to reach more normal levels. The article reported:

“Housing inventories increased in August and stood just 2.5% below their levels of a year ago, offering the latest sign that more sellers are testing the market after swift home-price gains over the past year.

Nationally, there were 1.98 million homes listed for sale in August, according to a report released Thursday by Realtor.com. That was up by more than 24% from the low point in February and up 1% from July. Inventories have increased for six straight months.”

What about Home Prices?

This doesn’t mean prices will collapse. The inventory levels are still depressed, just improving. As the article mentions:

“While the overall level of homes for sale remains relatively depressed, the report suggests that inventory may have hit a bottom earlier this year after an extended two-year decline.”

However, as we mentioned last week, properly pricing your home in this market can be tricky. You should depend on the advice of your real estate agent.

I see this happening in our Gig Harbor home market. It will be interesting as the economy picks up to see if this trend continues and owners remain in their homes rather than "trading up". Do you think we will all live in our homes longer than before the recession?

Americans are increasingly willing to spend on home renovations, according to a survey that says they are taking on more projects and plan to use more expensive materials throughout the process. Remodeling app Planese outlined in a news release the results of an online survey done with remodelormove.com, in which homeowners were asked roughly 70 questions about their plans to remodel their home or move to a new one. All 5,000 respondents were interested in making some sort of change.



The results indicate Americans are willing to spend 30 percent of their home's value to remodel, up from 25 percent in 2007 and 28 percent in 2010, though home prices were significantly higher in 2007 and lower in 2010 than they are now. People plan to spend an average of about $102,000 to renovate. How homeowners said they'd use that money offers more insight into the consumer mindset.



Based on the survey results, those looking to remodel increasingly plan to hire professionals for the work and use more expensive materials for the renovation. And as far as what they're remodeling, homeowners surveyed in 2013 are undertaking more expensive projects by favoring kitchen updates over bathrooms.

http://bit.ly/18kDA1j

Existing Gig Harbor home prices take jump. My past reports of year-over-year drops for Gig Harbor home prices may be behind us for now. Existing Gig Harbor home prices are up over 11% for the November-January quarter, over a year ago, for Gig Harbor/Key Peninsula combined. And one home sale just closed for $3,600,000—the first sale over $3 million for nearly five years.

Existing Gig Harbor home prices— median

• Gig Harbor ↑ 5.3% quarterly
• Key Peninsula  ↑ 3.9% quarterly
• Pierce County ↑8.4% quarterly
• Gig Harbor/Key Peninsula  volume ↑ 19% quarterly (12.5% annually)
• Inventory ↓17% from a year ago

New Gig Harbor home prices–median

• Gig Harbor/Key Peninsula  ↓ 42% quarterly
• Gig Harbor/Key Peninsula ↓ 22.5% from 2010
• Gig Harbor/Key Peninsula volume ↑ 250% quarterly (40% annually)

An interesting sidebar to our trending Gig Harbor home prices is new construction.  Nearly all of Gig Harbor’s current construction is in Gig Harbor North…Quadrant and Rush. New construction accounts currently for less than 10% of all sales, with the median price hovering under $300,000. In 2010 the median price was $470,000 and in 2011 $330,000. This year’s median price computes to a 13% drop in price from 2011…and 39% for the year before.

Gig Harbor’s new construction pricing will be a drag on the combined new and existing median price, at least for a while. For a better perspective of the trending market for Gig Harbor home prices going forward I will separate these two.  Sellers have more interest in resale prices while buyers watch both new and existing prices as they make their buying decisions.

Two of the county’s other major new home areas have experienced an increase in sales price, compared to Gig Harbor home prices; at the same time new construction is a larger portion of their overall sales. In Puyallup roughly 25% of sales are new homes with prices up 4.7% quarterly from a year ago.  New homes in Bonney Lake account for about 16% of sales and prices have increased 8.8% for the same period.

The price differences can be explained, in part, that during the economic downturn builders in the east side of the county were able to take advantage earlier of bank foreclosed plats, with drastically reduced lot prices. Builders passed lower lot costs on to their consumers. Banks took longer to foreclose on builders/developers in Gig Harbor and the current inventory is now reflecting those lower lot prices and thereby Gig Harbor home prices. Six years ago Gig Harbor had a bevy of small builders building high-quality product on larger lots. Currently most of those builders are gone and only the corporate builders remain, building on smaller Urban Growth Area (UGA) size lots.

This may change slightly as two builders have purchased lots in two uncompleted subdivisions and will likely be building in the $450-550,000 range.

Gig Harbor home prices end 2012 on a high note! The statistics say it all…Gig Harbor home prices are making a “comeback.” Let’s check off the changes in the median sales price (half the sales above and half below this price). Nearly all signs are UP.

GIG HARBOR/FOX ISLAND PRICES

• ↑ 3.7% 4^th Qtr 2012/2011
• ↑ 5.3% Dec  Y-O-Y
• ↑ 2.9% Dec over Nov
• ↓ 20% 4^th Qtr 2012/2006

KEY PENINSULA PRICES

•   ↑ 10% 4^th Qtr 2012/2011
•   ↑ 19% Dec Y-O-Y
•   ↑ 32% Dec over Nov
•   ↓ 13% 4^th Qtr 2012/2006

Gig Harbor home prices are 3.7% higher for the 4^th quarter over the prior year and Key Peninsula sales prices have improved 10% in the same year-over-year period.

Gig Harbor and Key Peninsula sales prices in 2011 decreased three out of every four months from 2010. While the same was true for Gig Harbor home prices most of the first half of 2012 the market recovered faster and stronger for Key Peninsula. But by summer Gig Harbor home prices stabilized as well.

Gig Harbor is now down only 20% for 4^th quarter from the housing boom period in 2006 for a median price of $340,000.  Key Peninsula is down 13% for a sales price of $218,000.

Sales numbers have come roaring back too, with each of the last five months marking the most sales since 2005 in Gig Harbor.

In Gig Harbor home prices are currently down 20% from late 2006 and 12% from two years ago. This emphasizes just how much of a hit the last two years have been… until the past few months.

Inventory is down 15% in Gig Harbor and down 9% in Key Peninsula.  And pending contracts (accepted but not yet closed) are at some of the highest levels since the housing boom…up 83% in Gig Harbor and 120% in Key Peninsula. Brokers were busy right through the holidays as buyers who had been house hunting were eager to have a house under contract by year’s end.

Currently the local market is experiencing a “balanced market” overall. But the strong demand and low inventory does not bode well for buyers this spring. Buyers need to be ready to act when they find the right house and realize in many prices ranges it has become a seller’s market for Gig Harbor home prices. But for sellers who have wanted to sell and “move on” they should have the confidence it is possible if the house is priced right.