Carole’s Blog

Gig Harbor home prices up 11.2%

Median Gig Harbor home prices are up 11.2% from a year ago, to $438,000. Median sales price is the normal method used for trends—half the sales above $438,000 and half below $438,000. This is a better figure than Pierce County, as a whole, which trended downward just slightly in September.  These statistics represent the Gig Harbor peninsula, including Fox Island. My next blog posting will show what is happening with Key Peninsula home prices.

Even more encouraging than the year-over-year figure is Gig Harbor homes prices have trended up 4.3% over the past 12 months compared to the previous 12 months. The third quarter as a whole is also an improvement over both 2009 and 2008. These more comprehensive numbers indicate Gig Harbor home prices are making a gradual but steady climb out of the hole they were in a year ago.

 The chart shows the specifics of the changes in Gig Harbor home prices.

Gig Harbor home prices

Noteworthy too, September recorded the highest median sales price of any month since June 2008—more than two years ago. Other than the 2008 date one had to look to 2007’s summer months to match or beat this September’s price.  

Sales ran the gamut—5 in Canterwood, 4 waterfront homes, 4 view homes, 4 condos, 4 in the new Chelsea Park neighborhood. The bulk of sales were in the $450-500,000 and $600-650,000 range, in addition to $250-300,000.

Sales volume is still slow—down from 2009 but nearly on a par with 2008—not yet great. There is currently a 13 month supply of houses on the market, based on September’s sales. That’s exactly what it was three years ago—September 2007–when the market turned downward–followed by 16 months often as high as 29 and 35 months supply.  A balanced market is between a 5-6 months supply.

September’s inventory of active listings is lower than it has been for this time of year. This low inventory might be giving us a false reading if there is a substantial amount of shadow inventory in the Gig Harbor market. Shadow inventory are homes foreclosed on by the lenders but not yet placed on the open market.

Gig Harbor home prices

Carole Holmaas is a Broker, licensed with Windermere Real Estate. She may be reached at 253.549.6611 or carole@ISellGigHarbor.com.

Gig Harbor straddles areas poised for housing growth

Before I get to my headline…

Next week I will report on August figures for Gig Harbor home sales which appear to be an improvement over July’s anemic closings. We are set to close on target or better than 2009, with pending sales starting to flow as well. Sales include a couple more closings over 1m.

Sellers are in lock-step with nation-wide economic news though, as over 250 residences were reduced in price during the month. More next week…

Now for some good local news…

Often Gig Harbor home sales do not follow county or regional trends.  While July figures were down throughout the region and Gig Harbor, inventory did not build in Gig Harbor as in other areas.

 And for some even better local news…

Washington State–specifically Tacoma and Bremerton-Silverdale–are poised to have some of the strongest housing markets by 2014. Earlier this month Businessweek.com released a forecast of the U. S housing market, prepared by Moody’s Economy.com and the information firm Fiserv.

Bremerton-Silverdale housing prices are expected to increase 44.7% over the next four years or 9.7% annually. The area has experienced a 20% drop from the 2007 boom year. The area’s heavy military presence has kept unemployment at 7.2%, compared to 9.5% nationally, and only a fraction higher than last year. Median family income is $69,900.

The area attracts buyers looking to live close to Seattle at a lower cost in a great natural setting. The same thing can be said of Tacoma, which the study predicts will be Washington’s second strongest market with a 33.1% price gain. 15% of that is predicted to occur by 1^st quarter 2012. Tacoma’s median family income is a tad lower than Bremerton at $66,200.

Gig Harbor is blessed to be straddling these two metro areas, offering some of the best schools, great parks and recreation, panoramic views, proximity to Seattle and probably the most picturesque small waterfront city in the Northwest.

Housing supply and demand in Washington, Oregon, New Mexico and Utah are in balance, according to the research, and are most likely to be undersupplied in another two years.

Carole Holmaas is a Broker with Windermere Real Estate, licensed since 1968. She specialized is waterfront and view properties and may be reached at 253.549.6611 or at Carole@ISellGigHarbor.com

Sales of Gig Harbor Waterfront look a lot like 2009

With 10 Gig Harbor waterfront sales written in July, the year is shaping up to look not as good as 2009 but not as bad as 2008—which was the worst for sales of Gig Harbor waterfront homes for decades.

Only 26 homes have closed escrow in 2010 through July. Nine of those were in June which gave waterfront Brokers signs of encouragement. But July turned around and brought only five closings. Closed sales numbered 30 at this point in 2009, with 51 sales, and 22 in 2008 when the year finished with only 40 sales.

101 sales is the average yearly number from 1998 through 2005 (just prior to the market peak when sellers “hung on” to their homes with expectations they would continue to increase in value). This number was consistent even during the recessionary early years of this decade. So 40 sales of Gig Harbor waterfront homes is abnormally low. And in 2009 when many of the high-end sales were cash, because of non-existent jumbo financing–sales barely topped 50.

Three of the July closings have been listed for 1578 days, 700 days and 537 days, respectively.

Nearly half of the current inventory of Gig Harbor waterfront homes is listed over $1,000,000. The median price is $625,000 in Key Peninsula. Normally Key Peninsula attributes one-third of all sales. This year their share is closer to one-fifth of sales.

Additionally, there is a fair amount of “shadow inventory”. These are sellers who would list their homes if the inventory wasn’t already so high…or those who have become discouraged and taken their homes off the market for a period of time. These “pent-up sellers” create something we call “shadow inventory” and they will enter the market once sales activity improves, thereby applying downward pressure on prices.

In my weekly snapshot of Gig Harbor waterfront market conditions that I prepare for my sellers and it is notable that four to six sellers have reduced their prices each week since the first of the year.

Carole Holmaas is a Broker, specializing in Gig Harbor Waterfront sales,  at Windermere Real Estate, licensed since 1968. She may be reached at 253.549.6611 or Carole @ISellGigHarbor.com.

Gig Harbor home prices show modest sustainability

Gig Harbor home prices are continuing to sustain modest increases a third of the way into 2010, although down from March’s high of $432,000. It was evident that the March figure was an anomaly and could not be sustained; it reached back to prices the first half of 2007.

Gig Harbor home prices are up 7.2% to $385,000 over April 2009. April is the eighth of the last 10 months to show improvement year over year. Gig Harbor includes both the Gig Harbor peninsula and Fox Island.

Prices are shown in $000’s

A wide spectrum of prices sold in April—over half below $400,000 but 27% of the sales were over $500,000, including two over $1million. I expect we will start to see higher Gig Harbor home prices as a more “normal” market takes over from the first-time buyer market dominating the last few months.

However I expect the number of sales to drop off some now that the first-time buyer incentive has expired. Sales of Gig Harbor homes have been better than 2009 for five of the last six months.  April sales were up 34% over 2009 and 2008. Much of that activity was driven by first-time buyers as well as favorable interest rates.

With the global economy in distress, interest rates are now predicted to stay low for the remainder of this year. Unfortunately the substantial volume of foreclosures will continue to keep Gig Harbor home prices down—a trend likely to persist into 2011 or beyond.

Inventory continues to drop—last month down 4% from a year ago and 17% from two years.

The chart shown for Gig Harbor home prices includes both single family and condos.

 

Carole Holmaas is an Associate Broker at Windermere Real Estate and licensed since 1967. She may be reached at 253.549.6611 or Carole@ISellGigHarbor.com. Her posts on real estate conditions may be read at http://blog.ISellGigHarbor.com

Gig Harbor WA Salt Waterfront Home at Wollochet Bay for Sale.  88 feet lower-bank waterfront, with a hint of Mt Rainier view,  plus a 2-party shared nearly new dock is the setting for this 5-year old 3412 sf well-bred traditional salt waterfront home for sale. The open plan is surrounded by windows, elegant touches & spacious glass-enclosed entertainment deck.

Dramatic fireplace, a chef-sized kitchen with double ovens and beautiful granite and glass tile accents, study with handsome coffered ceiling and spacious entrance hall. The main floor master suite is highlighted with raised fireplace, a very spacious walk-in closet & “spa-like” bath with jetted bath. There is a 2nd bedroom and bath on the entry floor. The lower floor offers 2 additional bedrooms, bonus room with large wetbar with 2nd fireplace, bath, hobby room and second utility room.

Beautiful landscaping completes this salt waterfront home for saleplus a triple car garage that is 32 feet deep—plenty of room of workshop or to pull the boat and trailer inside. The waterfront is bulkheaded with stone. Besides the private dock, there is a community boat launch and dock available to home owners. The home is on a sewer.

Call me at 253.549.6611 for more information about this or another salt waterfront home for sale or visit me at Windermere Real Estate in Gig Harbor.

It is likely Wollochet Bay is connected to a Native American word, which means “squirting clams”.  Native Americans fished and sold the fish to the European-American settlers and traded woven baskets.

Area residents have consistently demonstrated their strong commitment to provide a high quality public education to nearly 10,000 students. The district enjoys a statewide reputation for meeting the educational needs of today’s students who become tomorrow’s leaders. In addition, Gig Harbor has nearly a dozen private schools. 

The Harbor History Museum is located on Gig Harbor Bay and allows visitors a place to experience the history of Gig Harbor. The Museum is in the process of relocating to a new multi-million dollar facility, highlighted by the Shenandoah, a purse seiner built in a Gig Harbor shipyard and the Midway schoolhouse.

While Gig Harbor was once most known for its fishing and logging, it is now also known for its numerous art galleries, art walks and art shows. Two theatre companies in Gig Harbor provide entertainment including dinner theatre and summer outdoor theatre.

The Gig Harbor area is ideal for enjoying water-related recreation. Whether you prefer water skiing, power or sail boating, kayaking, fresh or salt water fishing, scuba driving, windsurfing, clamming, beachcombing or swimming, the secluded harbors provide excellent moorage and docking facilities.

There are four state parks. Boat ramps are located near the major bays. Gig Harbor operates a waterfront park, a park on Crescent Creek, a boat-building facility and a pioneer farm. Eight golf courses offer year-round golf close to Gig Harbor.

Numerous events are scheduled throughout the year, largely centered on the Gig Harbor waterfront, including farmers markets, outdoor cinema, Tuesday night music at the park, and lighted holiday boat parade.

Youth and adult baseball, basketball, football, gymnastics, dance, and soccer programs are provided through community organizations. Two local pools provide swimming opportunities for the community and swim clubs.

Gig Harbor home prices down 7%...but still less than county

When the News Tribune reported last month the average price for a home in Pierce County had fallen 12% from 2008, following a drop of 9% a year earlier, I decided to compare average Gig Harbor home prices with the county's average.

Normally the median sales price (half the sales above and half below) is used for comparisons locally, as well as nationally. In January I reported that the median was actually up 1% year-over-year for December but down 4% from two years earlier.

Gig Harbor home prices did take a hit when you assess the entire year-dropping 7%-- and an even larger 11% punch from 2007 to 2008. However, even combined, the figures were still better than Pierce County as a whole. The table below compares Gig Harbor zip codes 98332, 98333 and 98335 for closings in December over the last seven years.

The first three quarters of 2008 held up fairly well but, as could be expected, the fourth quarter was the killer. There was a full $100,000 difference in both average and median Gig Harbor home prices, comparing June 2008 to December 2008. This is the reason why December year-over-year is up but 2009 is still down for the entire year

Key Peninsula was off its 2008 average by 16% and off 23% for the combined 2008-09 years--following closely the county trend.

Sellers need to look realistically at the price range buyers are purchasing today.  The graph below clearly illustrates the "disconnect" between what sellers are asking and buyers are buying.  Buyers are closing on homes, on average, today $250,000 less than the list price-this is 38% less than the average list price. In 2002 the spread was only 25%.  Obviously, this does not mean a specific house sold for 38% less than its list price...simply there is a huge spread between Gig Harbor home prices-listing and selling.

These lower average prices are being fueled in part by the "resetting" of real estate values as well as by the huge percentage of first time buyers in today's marketplace, utilizing the tax credit. One possible scenario when the tax credit expires in April is that the number of sales will fall off but the market will neutralize, with less concentration of first-time buyers. Because this particular market segment will drastically be reduced, it could result in an elevation of sales prices-even with fewer buyers.

Carole Holmaas is a licensed Associate Broker, licensed since 1967, at Windermere Real Estate/Gig Harbor. She may be reached at 253.549.6611 or Carole@ISellGigHarbor.com. Her blog may be followed at http://Blog.ISellGigHarbor.com

Key Peninsula home prices are on a roller coaster

Key Peninsula home prices are higher one month and lower the next, compared to 2008. While sales prices were lower in December they followed three months of higher prices.

Key Peninsula home prices are down 10% from 2008 and 14% from 2007. That compares to Gig Harbor that bumped up 1% over 2008 and the 4-county Puget Sound area that dropped 7% decrease in prices.

On the other hand, sales of Key Peninsula homes have been showing a tidy increase, with 33% over 2008 and 29% from 2007 year-over-year. The change from 2008 is on a par with Gig Harbor but sales in Gig Harbor are a whopping 160% better than 2007.

 At the same time the 4-county Puget Sound area reported 54.7% more sales than last year so both Gig Harbor and Key Peninsula are some distance behind regional figures for this measure.

Realtors have been pleased with the relatively strong market for December and the momentum appears to be continuing with sales activity in January. Much of those sales are being driven by the first-time home buyer tax credits and low interest rates. Interest rates are starting to tick upward and are expected to peak around 6.5% during 2010.

Inventory continues to drop-down 33% from last year at this time. This is helping stabilize prices as the home supply dwindles. Key Peninsula is currently experiencing just an 8.8 month supply of homes on the market. For the homebuyer, that means if no new homes were listed, it would take about nine months to sell the current inventory. I would expect the supply to drop even more as January sales activity continues to hum.

Carole Holmaas is an Associate Broker at Windermere Real Estate/Gig Harbor, licensed since 1967. She may be reached at 253.549.66 or Carole@ISellGigHarbor.com. Her blog may be followed at http://blog.ISellGigHarbor.com

Gig Harbor home prices continue to climb out of hole

Gig Harbor home prices are continuing to sustain moderately higher sales prices as 2009 closes out. December is the fifth of the last six months to show improvement year over year. Gig Harbor is defined as the Gig Harbor peninsula and Fox Island.

Gig Harbor home prices are up 1% over 2008, comparing the months of December only. The 4-county Puget Sound area however experienced a 7% decrease in sales price.

Another plus--sales of Gig Harbor homes have been better than 2008 for the last half year now-in each of those six months.    While December sales improved by 7% over November-which is not the norm-they were up dramatically 41% over 2008 and 160% over 2007. The 4-county Puget Sound area reported 54.7% more sales than last year, but Gig Harbor home prices (median sales price) are substantially higher than the Puget Sound, as a whole.

December was a stronger market than Realtors were expecting and there appears to be momentum to keep the market moving. Much of the activity is still being driven by first-time home buyer tax credits as well as favorable interest rates. Unfortunately the substantial volume of foreclosures has driven down prices-a trend likely to persist throughout 2010.

The strongest segment in Gig Harbor home prices the past thirty days has been in the $350-450k range, a segment actually entering  the beginning of a seller's market.

Inventory continues to drop-last month down 8% from November, but down 19% from December 2008. The 4-county Puget Sound area has experienced a nearly identical decrease in inventory.

New homes sales are on the same tract with 11 months of inventory.The table I've supplied for Gig Harbor home prices shows single family homes only.

Carole Holmaas is an Associate Broker at Windermere Real Estate/Gig Harbor, licensed since 1967. She may be reached at 253.549.6611 or Carole@ISellGigHarbor.com. Her blog may be followed at http://blog.ISellGigHarbor.com

Gig Harbor waterfront homes sell at 2005 prices

Gig Harbor waterfront homes sold at a much faster clip this past year but median sales prices compare remarkably close to 2005-no where near the 2006-2007 peak. 2009's price for Key Peninsula and Gig Harbor waterfront homes was $683,000. This closely parallels the decline in sales of all homes in the area

Sales in 2008 were depressingly slow-only 22-the worst year for sales of Gig Harbor waterfront homes for the nearly three decades I've been recording waterfront market statistics. This year's 51 sales are a 128% improvement but it is still the second worse year of the past 15.

The ups and downs in median prices for Gig Harbor waterfront homes over the past six years:

2004        488,000

2005        680,000           40%▲

2006        850,000           25%▲

2007        900,000           6%  ▲

2008        800,000           11%▼

2009        683,000           15%▼

Prices have held up the best in the areas close to the city where the median price was $953,000.  And prices were nearly as high in Horsehead Bay/Arletta with sales finding a median at $910,000. 

The spread-more than 30%--between the median list and sale prices shows the huge disconnect between the homes currently on the market and the price range buyers are willing to pay to buy waterfront. Four years ago the spread between listings and sales of Gig Harbor waterfront homes was $50-100,000-not $300,000. 

Closed homes experienced only four months, on average, of market time while the current inventory is nearing six months of exposure.

Just nine homes closed for over $1m. The most expensive was a Raft Island home with a deep-water dock. Five were purchased by boaters because of the docks, two will be torn down or substantially rebuilt, and three were purchased for second home use.

I anticipate prices to increase very gradually during 2010. But there are no signs that any part of the real estate market will show any but very minor improvement until 2011, and even then not robust growth. There will be a few more sales made and motivated sellers who prepare and price their home for the current market should see offers as some jumbo money becomes available. Several of these Gig Harbor waterfront homes were purchased with cash and I expect cash to remain king this year as well.

Inventory always builds in the spring and sellers should be aware that traditionally the best months for offers for Gig Harbor waterfront homes are March to June. Sellers who truly want to sell need to get the price right for this selling season.  Buyers will have a wide selection of homes and can expect to buy at prices they haven't seen for several years.

Carole Holmaas is an Associate Broker at Windermere, licensed since 1967. She may be reached at 253.549.6611 or Carole@ISellGigHarbor.com.

Gig Harbor home prices continue to climb out of hole

Gig Harbor home prices are continuing to sustain moderately higher sales prices as 2009 closes out. December is the fifth of the last six months to show improvement year over year. Gig Harbor is defined as the Gig Harbor peninsula and Fox Island.

Gig Harbor home prices are up 1% over 2008, comparing the months of December only. The 4-county Puget Sound area however experienced a 7% decrease in sales price.

Another plus--sales of Gig Harbor homes have been better than 2008 for the last half year now-in each of those six months.    While December sales improved by 7% over November-which is not the norm-they were up dramatically 41% over 2008 and 160% over 2007. The 4-county Puget Sound area reported 54.7% more sales than last year, but Gig Harbor home prices (median sales price) are substantially higher than the Puget Sound, as a whole.

December was a stronger market than Realtors were expecting and there appears to be momentum to keep the market moving. Much of the activity is still being driven by first-time home buyer tax credits as well as favorable interest rates. Unfortunately the substantial volume of foreclosures has driven down prices-a trend likely to persist throughout 2010.

The strongest segment in Gig Harbor home prices the past thirty days has been in the $350-450k range, a segment actually entering  the beginning of a seller's market.

Inventory continues to drop-last month down 8% from November, but down 19% from December 2008. The 4-county Puget Sound area has experienced a nearly identical decrease in inventory.

New homes sales are on the same tract with 11 months of inventory.

The table I've supplied for Gig Harbor home prices shows single family homes only.

Carole Holmaas is an Associate Broker at Windermere Real Estate/Gig Harbor, licensed since 1967. She may be reached at 253.549.6611 or Carole@ISellGigHarbor.com. Her blog may be followed at http://blog.ISellGigHarbor.com