Carole's Blog

Gig Harbor home sales continue nicely in “recovery mode”

In a nutshell—Gig Harbor home sales prices are up, inventory & sales volume are flat, upper tier is appreciating, & new construction is impacting buyers. Here’s my take for the September-November quarter for Gig Harbor & Fox Island, compared to a year ago…

Sales prices ↑ 6.2%

A 6.2% increase in Gig Harbor home sales brings the median sales price (the mid-way point in sales prices) to $378,000 for the quarter. The single month of November was $432,000 — 31% over October and 44% from last November. Prices for Gig Harbor home sales have been gradually strengthening all year after a low of $303,000 in January. This increase should allow more sellers to list – gaining some of the equity lost during the housing bust – and adding to the inventory the market badly needs.

Prices are down 20% from the 2006 third-quarter peak — at summer 2005 prices. Important to note, at the peak, new homes made up a substantial number of sales at $600-750,000, elevating over-all prices. The 6.2% uptick is realistic appreciation I believe, after a stagnant 3 ½ years, ending with second quarter 2014.

Resale non-distressed homes appreciating

These are sales of existing homes – not short sales or bank-owned. Sales prices have steadily been gaining since March, except for October – at $384,000 — down 14% from the 2006 third-quarter peak. The single month of November was $448,000 –the highest single month’s sales price since August 2006 ($475,000) when prices for Gig Harbor home sales turned the corner. However, too much cannot be read into this single month.  22% –11 of the sales were waterfront homes over the median sales price – never before seen in November.

Sales Volume ↑ 1.4%

Pendings ↑15.9%

Contracts written but not yet closed are up with renewed consumer confidence, threat of future higher interest rates and easing of loan requirements.

Inventory “flat”

Inventory is still low, which can lead to multiple offers and homes selling above their list prices. Routine in the Seattle area but it happens here too. Local brokers point to the quality of some homes plus unrealistic pricing in Gig Harbor. They say buyers often will not even look at a house they perceive to be over-market but wait for a price reduction before even viewing it.

New home inventory 26% of the market

With a quarter of all inventory new homes the market is decidedly different for buyers than a year ago when it made up only 16%. With fewer resale homes – and more new homes –some buyers are having to change search parameters – especially when it comes to lot size. The Growth Management Act regulates density where utilities can service it, forcing smaller lots. Half of new homes currently are on smaller square footage than the traditional 12,500 – 35% are on 5000 or less –and half of those on less than 2300. This can provide more buyer interest for resale homes on larger sites.

Short-sales ↓50% – REO’s flat

The distressed market continues to retreat — just 10% of Gig Harbor home sales. It was 13% last year.

Waterfront sales on par with 2013

Sales volume on the two peninsulas looks to nearly equal the 135 sales last year. But the real story here is increasing prices – we could see a median sales price uptick of $100,000 when all the dust settles—bringing it to the $600,000 range.  And even bigger news is the $1m plus tier for Gig Harbor home sales . 2014 will end with the same number of sales over $1m as in 2006 and 2007—21. Over 90% of the $1m sales came in the last half of the year – again low interest, good values, and increased consumer confidence. (See Resale Non-Distressed Sales above)

2015 will be a strong year for Gig Harbor home sales

I’m going out on a limb and predict 2015–even this winter–Gig Harbor home sales will be even more active than 2014. Here is why:

• The volume of pending sales throughout the Puget Sound—including Gig Harbor & Key Peninsula– is at a 9-year high. That is a turn-around from the slow earlier 4^th quarter and 1^st quarter.
• Interest rates are going to bump up, as much as 1% next year, according to Freddie Mac, encouraging buyers to make decisions sooner. A one point rate increase relates to 10% less purchasing power for the same payment. Credit is getting easier, with lower FICO scores being accepted and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are planning to offer 3% down loans.
• Owners are regaining some equity lost over the past 8 years and many have been waiting to market their home until prices improved. Many of those are looking for a lifestyle change. I estimate there is a “pent-up demand” by more than 200 waterfront owners alone who would like to make a move. I believe more of those owners will put their homes on the market next year, based on recent figures showing a volume increase of 25% between $750-1M and 50% over $1M in the past 3 months.
• Houses are sitting an average of only 75 days on the market, down from 108. Gig Harbor has just a 4.4 month supply of homes on the market, Pierce & Kitsap counties 3.3 months & King County less than 2 months. This puts pressure on Gig Harbor home sales.
• The median sales price for Gig Harbor home sales increased around 4% for the past 3 months — for Gig Harbor at $379,000 but is still swinging widely in Key Peninsula from $165,000 to $245,000. The higher tier has shown more improvement—$750,000-1M is up 5.8% and even $1M+ is up .2%.

Here’s my advice for today’s sellers. Technology has put the buyer in the driver’s seat, in determining what a house should sell for—so sellers cannot add “fluff” to the listing price, hoping to find a buyer who isn’t knowledgeable about the market. Buyers are knowledgeable.

And for buyers—keep in mind that one point in interest rate increase will buy you 10% less house, at the same time that prices are going up.

July was good, August a little better for South Sound home sales

Here is the report from News Tribune writer about Pierce County home sales. The Gig Harbor and Key Peninsulas didn't fare quite as well for the median sales price uptick year-over-year but do show a solid 5% upgrade for year-to-date figures — just a tad lower than the county as a whole. BY ROLF BOONE Staff writerSeptember 4, 2014 Pierce County single-family residence data for August 2014/2013 -Sales rose 1.55 percent to 1,176 units from 1,158 units. -Median prices rose to $239,950 from $230,000. -Pending sales rose 4.5 percent to 1,454 units from 1,391 units. -Number of single-family residences for sale rose 12.5 percent to 3,967 units from 3,527 units. -New listings in August fell to 1,480 units from 1,505 units. Pierce County condo data for August 2014/2013 -Sales fell 4.3 percent to 88 units from 92 units -Median prices fell 5.3 percent to $154,500 from $163,200. -Pending sales rose to 96 units from 95 units. -Number of condos for sale rose 3.7 percent to 251 units from 242 units. -New condo listings in August rose to 111 units from 93 units. Source: Northwest Multiple Listing Service The South Sound housing market continued its upward trajectory in August, with monthly home sales rising to new highs for the year, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Thursday. Pierce County home sales rose about 1 percent to 1,264 units in August from 1,250 units in the same month last year, while Thurston County home sales rose more than 3 percent to 373 units from 361 units in the same period, the combined single-family residence and condo data show. The number of homes sold in both counties were highs for the year, the data show. Median prices also rose in both counties, up slightly more than 4 percent in Pierce County to $235,000, while Thurston County rose nearly 2 percent to $239,000. King County's housing market, meanwhile, ran headlong into the realities of not having enough homes for sale. Home sales fell nearly 7 percent in August, while median prices inched up about 1 percent. The challenge? King County has only a two month's supply of homes for sale, the combined data show. And that's increasingly the challenge in Pierce and Thurston counties. Although the number of homes for sale rose nearly 12 percent in Pierce County and 5 percent in Thurston County, that still equates to less than a four month's supply of homes on the market at the current pace of sales. For August, the months of inventory was 3.34 months in Pierce County and 3.83 months in Thurston County, the combined data show. But Mike Larson, president and designated broker of Allen Realtors in Lakewood, wasn't too concerned about the lower inventory level in Pierce County because at one time a two-and-a-half month to three-and-a-half month's supply of homes was once considered the norm. "It's slow and steady and trending in the right direction," he said about the market. "Balanced and moderate is a lot better than the ups and downs we saw for years." But Steve Pust, a managing broker at Van Dorm Realty in west Olympia, has noticed the lower inventory level in Thurston County, saying buyers in the market are having trouble finding a home, he said. That has resulted in some multiple offer situations, Pust said. Low levels of inventory typically pushes median prices higher, but the county still has about 60 bank-owned home sales a month, and not every buyer can qualify to purchase such a property, he said. In that situation, banks get very particular about the type of buyer they want, shutting out contingency buyers — those selling a home while trying to buy another at the same time — or requiring that their financing be in order, Pust said. If inventories get leaner, sellers will drive median prices higher, he said.

Foreclosures are down from a year ago–both state-wide and nationally. CoreLoic released figues recently with1.6% of the homes are in some state of foreclosure. That tracks closely with the national number of 1.7%.

Still the number of homes in the foreclosure process is four times as high as the early 2000's.

And nearly 35% of all homeowners are under–water on their mortgages–meaning they have less than 20% equity in their home or could not sell and have enough money for a down payment on another home.

Gig Harbor homes fared even better with foreclosures and short sales only 6.5% of sales for the month of July.

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http://www.keepingcurrentmatters.com/2014/08/29/nars-existing-home-sales-report-infographic-3/

Gig Harbor home sales in “recovery mode” 

In a nutshell—prices are up, inventory is under par, sales volume is down and the upper tier is appreciating. Now the details for Gig Harbor home sales year-over-year for the quarter…

Gig Harbor home sales down 16.5%

July itself is not usually a high sale volume month for Gig Harbor home sales (or any other area) with vacations. Only 2004 and 2013 were better in last 12 years, so in perspective, this is not bad.

The middle one-third of Gig Harbor home sales ($325-500,000) has predictably shown the least downturn in sales volume and the top one-third ($500,000 plus) has shown the least downgrade on number of contracts written (pending). Contracts written but not closed indicate current activity, thereby important because they show “move-up” activity as well as increased market strength and pricing for the higher tier.

Gig Harbor home sales “pending” down 14%

Pending sales for the quarter are down but shot up 14% from June, which is the experience local brokers have seen. Most central Puget Sound counties had the same experience.

Prices for Gig Harbor home sales up 7.2%

The median price is appreciating–$387,000 for the quarter and $410,000 for July. July is also up 3.8% over June and up 25% year-over-year for the month. It has been gradually strength this year, after starting very low at $303,000 in January. This increase in prices for Gig Harbor home sales will encourage more sellers to list, adding the inventory the area badly needs.

We are down 18% from our 2006 third-quarter peak–or at summer 2005 prices. But at that time new homes made up as much as 40% of the sales, priced at $600,000 plus. The King/Pierce/Snohomish market as a whole is down 12.6% from the peak—the lower figure representing ever-strong metro King County.

Price increases are not exorbitant–just realistic appreciation. Brokers area-wide are saying sellers who overprice their homes face disappointing consequences.

Resale non-distressed appreciating

Sales prices have steadily been gaining since the first of the year–now at first-quarter 2006 prices $395,000.  August 2006 the peak–we are down 18% from the peak.

Inventory up 3%

Inventory is still low, which leads to multiple offers and homes selling above their list prices. Brokers throughout the Puget Sound point to the quality of some homes plus unrealistic pricing hindering sales. They say buyers often will not even look at a house they perceive to be over-market but just wait for a price reduction before viewing it.

New homes sales 10%

New construction has taken over 10% of all Gig Harbor home sales, down from 15% a year ago. But it represents 19% of all active listings,

Distressed sales 12%

This distressed market represents just 12% of Gig Harbor home sales—slightly less than the 14% in 2013. The single month of July was even better at just 6.5%.

Waterfront sales down

Sales volume is down significantly following the last 2 “makeup years”. Sales over $1m are running at just half-speed from those 2 years.

Gig Harbor waterfront prices up 10%

Gig Harbor waterfront prices up 10%, January to mid-May, over the 2013 year. The entire price bump is coming from Gig Harbor and Fox Island—up 14% while Key Peninsula is experiencing a 7% decrease. Here are the highlights…

Sales volume for Gig harbor waterfront

• On track for 100 sales by year-end—fairly typical
• Slower thus far than 2013’s all-time high of 135
• Sweet spot is $500-600,000, 4 closed/2 active listings
• Also $400-500,000, 8 closed/14 listings
• Also $900,000, 4 closed/8 listings

Median sales prices y-t-d for Gig Harbor waterfront

• Prices ↑ 10% on both peninsulas over 2013 year–$550,000
• Prices still ↓ 38% from 2007 peak
• $1m+ represents 30% of listings—but just 11% of sales
• $1m+ average 2 years on market before sale
• Under $1m—average under 6 months on the market
• Gig Harbor/Fox Island ↑ 14% over 2013–$713,000
• Gig Harbor highest sale $2,960,000 after 6 ½ years
• Key Peninsula ↓ 7%–$ 395,000
• Key Peninsula highest sale $600,000 this year

Proposed Gig Harbor waterfront changes muddy the waters

The proposed all-new Shoreline Master Plan for Gig Harbor waterfront, mandated by the State, is proceeding cautiously—with local  hearings postponed by the Pierce County Council. The Council has chosen to push back against the State Department of Ecology on issues including buffers and aquaculture, but with the threat the State will impose more onerous regulations on shoreline properties if the Council can’t agree. The current 50 foot “setback” is proposed to change to a 75-150 foot “vegetative buffer.” And structural expansion into the “buffer” would be limited to 25% of the existing footprint, in most cases.

Every Gig Harbor waterfront owner should pay close attention to the current process and seek professional assistance, “sooner than later” if there is any thought of expanding, building or selling in the future.

Cumulative House Appreciation 2014-2018.  The Home Price Expectation Survey 2014 1st Quarter was released last week by Pulsenomics. Pulsenomics surveys over one hundred economists, real estate experts and investment & market strategists asking them to project home prices. This includes three graphs for the national scene, projecting the highest this year and slightly lower the following four years.

1. The pre-bubble trend
2. The 25% most optimistic experts (bulls)
3. All projections
4. The 25% most pessimistic experts (bears)

And then, some indications historically of where annual appreciation sits:

Gig Harbor waterfront 2013’s sales volume was up 33% year-over-year.  April through October posted nearly identical volume each month—14 or 15 homes closing each month.  And the number of sales every month was the highest for Gig Harbor waterfront it had been for at least a decade.

The strong activity for Gig Harbor waterfront was due to a nearly “perfect storm” of buying conditions…historically low interest rates the first half of the year, a fair amount of inventory available with pent-up seller demand, easier lending requirements, and the buyers’ realization the market had bottomed. However, the very high tier—over $1million– dropped off precipitously with no Gig Harbor waterfront contracts written after the end of August. This followed the nation-wide fall-off of all price ranges in 4^th quarter. This very high-end represented just 10% of all sales—the lowest percentage we’ve seen since 2004.

·         Gig Harbor waterfront sales prices reached their peak in 2007. Prices have dropped 45% since then—back to where they were in 2003-2004.

·         The current slim inventory of Gig Harbor waterfront—coupled with still relatively low interest rates and easier financing could mean improving prices for sellers in 2014. On the other hand, if pent-up sellers place a surge of homes in the marketplace, it could continue to hold down prices. I believe there is a minimum of 300 waterfront owners who are ready to move—if market conditions (prices) will permit.

·         Gig Harbor waterfront homes selling above $1m sold on average for 150% of their assessed value in 2013. Average waterfront was 170 feet.  Nearly all faced West or Northwest, 3 had docks, and 8 were low or no-bank…nothing unusual here.

·         Homes selling from $750,000-1,000,000 sold on average for 120% of their assessed value. Sites averaged 136 feet, slightly more than half faced north or east, most the rest south.

·         Gig Harbor waterfront distressed home sales were down—just 9% of the sales last year were short-sales and 4% were bank-owned. This is a great reduction from two years ago at 9% and 13% respectively. The most expensive bank-owned house sold for $875,000 on Fox Island.

           There may be a window of opportunity for Gig Harbor waterfront  sellers now in early spring to take advantage of low inventory and buyers before more sellers enter the marketplace.

Gig Harbor waterfront 2013’s sales volume was up 33% year-over-year.  April through October posted nearly identical volume each month—14 or 15 homes closing each month.  And the number of sales every month was the highest for Gig Harbor waterfront it had been for at least a decade.

Gig Harbor waterfront 2013’s strong activity was due to a nearly “perfect storm” of buying conditions…historically low interest rates the first half of the year, a fair amount of inventory available with pent-up seller demand, easier lending requirements, and the buyers’ realization the market had bottomed. However, the very high tier—over $1million– dropped off precipitously with no Gig Harbor waterfront contracts written after the end of August. This followed the nation-wide fall-off of all price ranges in 4^th quarter. This very high-end represented just 10% of all sales—the lowest percentage we’ve seen since 2004.

• Gig Harbor waterfront sales prices reached their peak in 2007. Prices have dropped 46% since then–now residing where they were in 2003-2004.
• The current slim inventory of Gig Harbor waterfront—coupled with still relatively low interest rates and easier financing could mean improving prices for sellers in 2014. On the other hand, if pent-up sellers place a surge of homes in the marketplace, it could continue to hold down prices. I believe there is a minimum of 250 waterfront owners who are ready to move—if market conditions (prices) will permit.
• Gig Harbor waterfront homes selling above $1m sold on average for 150% of their assessed value in 2013. Average waterfront was 170 feet.  Nearly all faced West or Northwest, 3 had docks, and 8 were low or no-bank…nothing unusual here.
• Homes selling from $750,000-1,000,000 were on average 120% of their assessed value. Sites here averaged 136 feet, slightly more than half faced north or east, most the rest south.
• Gig Harbor waterfront distressed home sales were down—just 9% of the sales last year were short-sales and 4% were bank-owned. This is a great reduction from two years ago at 9% and 13% respectively. The most expensive bank-owned house sold for $875,000 on Fox Island.

• There may be a window of opportunity for Gig Harbor waterfront  sellers now in early spring to take advantage of low inventory and buyers before more sellers enter the marketplace.